Weakening climate commitments to win back voters from Reform UK could cost Labour support elsewhere, according to new research.1
A study from the University of Manchester suggests that Labour risks worsening its electoral position if it abandons or weakens its climate commitments, amid growing political pressure over the future of net zero.
It argues that the changing political landscape presents a dilemma for the Government. While Reform has made opposition to net zero an increasingly prominent part of its political strategy, the Green Party is attracting support from voters who want more ambitious climate action alongside a stronger response to economic inequality.
Rather than retreating from climate commitments, the researchers argue that electoral gains may be possible for any party seeking to make climate policies fairer and ensure they deliver tangible benefits for lower-income households.
The research, led by Professor Matthew Paterson of the University of Manchester, examines how the fragmentation of British politics is reshaping the electoral pressures surrounding climate change.
The electoral risk of abandoning net zero
The UK was previously considered a world leader in climate policy, reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by more than 50 per cent since 1990. This progress was supported by a relatively stable consensus between Labour and the Conservatives, with competition between the parties focused largely on how best to deliver climate action rather than whether it should be a priority.
But the researchers argue that this political settlement has broken down, with the rise of Reform UK and the Green Party transforming the electoral landscape.
Since the 2024 General Election, both parties have emerged as significant challengers to Labour, with the 2026 local elections demonstrating the extent of the shift.
The researchers argue that Labour faces pressure from both directions. Weakening climate commitments might appear to offer a way of appealing to Reform voters, but risks alienating people who want stronger action and are increasingly turning to the Greens.
The paper highlights how the Green Party’s electoral gains have been driven not simply by climate concerns, but also by dissatisfaction with economic inequality and the cost-of-living crisis.
The researchers also point out that most Reform voters do not necessarily oppose climate action. This suggests that opposition to net zero should not automatically be interpreted as a widespread public rejection of climate policy.
A fairer route to net zero
Rather than weakening its climate ambitions, the research argues that Labour should focus on ensuring the benefits of the transition to net zero are shared more fairly.
The researchers note that some existing policies, including subsidies, for electric vehicles, solar panels and heat pumps, can disproportionately benefit wealthier households, because they require people to pay substantial costs upfront. Although these investments can reduce energy bills over time, many households lack the savings needed to take advantage of them.
Housing and transport are identified as particularly important areas where climate policy could also help address wider inequalities. Investment in home insulation and warmer homes could reduce energy bills, while cheaper public transport and better cycling infrastructure could offer practical alternatives to car dependence.
The researchers also highlight the potential of the Government’s Warm Homes Plan and community energy schemes to connect the transition to net zero with improving living standards.
They argue that these policies could help address some of the economic frustrations driving support for populist parties, while creating a stronger political case for climate action.
Greater devolution could also help, allowing local and regional governments to develop climate policies that respond more directly to the needs of their communities.
The electoral calculus
“Labour faces pressure from both sides of the political debate on climate change,” said Professor Matthew Paterson, Professor of Politics at the University of Manchester. “While Reform is pushing for a retreat from net zero, the Green Party is demonstrating that there is an electoral constituency for more ambitious climate action.
“Our research suggests that abandoning net zero could be electorally misguided. The more promising approach is to make sure climate policies deliver tangible benefits for ordinary people, particularly those on lower incomes.
“Warmer homes, lower energy bills and better public transport can all help tackle the cost-of-living crisis while reducing emissions. Making social justice central to climate policy could be crucial to maintaining public support and keeping the UK on track to tackle climate change.”
Notes
[1] “The changing electoral politics of pursuing climate action in the UK”, The Political Quarterly, October 2026.
